From The Word of the Strategist (Brazil)-
I am especially happy to write this report to you, the reader. After all, it is much better to write about good news than bad.
In the market our reputation is that we are cold, and in fact, we are! We manage to make profits when the market goes well and also when it goes down.
And there is no reason to be sad in a recession, if you are earning a lot of money with it. Yes, I recognize that wasn’t “politically correct.”
But we are human beings, and part of our essence is to be good and bad at the same time, and being able to recognize this is essential.
Truth be told, today I will not talk about how to profit from disasters. Today I will talk about making money from a positive scenario in which it won’t only be you winning, but all of Brazil!
For months a very big question prowled our financial radar: the credit risk.
I even wrote a chilling report on the “Strong Dollar and the Bogeyman,” and what it could happen to our economy if the real entered into a cycle of devaluation and risk aversion.
At the time, the main fear was that capitalwould flee Brazil, invalidating the rollover of debt of companies that were drowning in.
Fortunately, it did not. Strong numbers from the US helped, the Chinese tax stimuli gave a new life to global investors, and the Brexit reinforced the global low interest rate scenario.
With this climate of weak activity around the world, a country which offers a GDP recoveryof -3.3% in one year to + 1% the next becomes a new favorite. And if we add to the list of qualities 12.5% interest while the rest of the world operates at 0% or less, we have then a big winner…