It’s About to Be June 2014 All Over Again

20.07.2016 • The Economy

From Strategy of Simone Wapler (France)-

In the air a little whiff of 2014 …

Perhaps you remember June 2014. The IMF lowered its global growth forecasts, the dollar rose against other currencies since the Fed ended its asset purchases ( quantitative easing ) and the oil began its decline.

In October 2014, the market recorded a serious correction and everything is back in order.

Thereafter, every drop of oil, stock markets have fallen: in September 2015 and early 2016.

On this graph, in black, the US S & P 500; red oil prices and the blue Dollar Index (Dollar assessed against a basket of currencies).

The S & P 500 still managed to recover from the oil drop, either in 2014, 2015 or 2016.

The Fed halted the rising dollar deferring any further increase in the policy rate.

The US Treasury have not yet returned to the Bermuda Triangle of negative interest rates. But it could happen if they are overbought – for an institutional investor forced to be invested in highly liquid financial markets, the dollar is the least worst of all currencies!

A glance on purchases by foreigners of the US Treasury ( for the curious, is here [5] ) shows that this is not the case however. From January to May foreigners have sold Treasuries. In total on the first five months, foreigners got rid of $ 110 billion.

What have they bought?

-If you want to subscribe to read more, visit publications-agora.fr (paywall) (French)-

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