From the Daily Pro (Brazil) –
Nassim Taleb philosophically solved the problem of decision uncertainty. Since you never know what will happen, you should choose a strong strategy. From an epistemological point of view, there is nothing superior to that.
As it is impossible to know if it will be heads (positive scenario) or tails (negative), you should choose the outcome that offers the best potential returns, in terms of a favorable balance between losses and potential gains. I will prefer the strategy X to Y because in a negative scenario it will bring me lower losses, and in a positive scenario, higher gains.
Yesterday, my mother was in doubt if she should dye her hair or not. She decided not to, because there is a party on Saturday night and she does not want to risk making a big mistake. She has little to gain by dying her hair a new color – being an amateur hairdresser is dangerous. There is too much to lose. I am proud to have a mother trained in Talebian theory, although she doesn’t realize it.
If you take a few chances, you win some and lose some. But if the gains, by definition, are greater than the losses, you come out as the winner in the long run. Touché, a toast to Taleb.