The Trump Trade: How We Predicted What No One Saw Coming

10.11.2016 • Politics and War

By Chris Lowe – Inner Circle (USA) –

Here’s one thing we didn’t put on your radar: a Trump victory in the U.S. presidential race.

But that’s what’s happened.

Here’s how the Washington Post broke the news:

Donald John Trump has been projected as the winner of the presidential election, according to the Associated Press, after election returns showed that Trump had won stunning come-from-behind victories across a swath of contested states.
Trump, 70, will be the 45th president of the United States. A real-estate developer and former reality-TV star, Trump is the first person to win the presidency without having previously held public office or served in the U.S. military.
Mike Pence, 57, will be vice president. Pence was a long-time member of the House of Representatives and is now the Republican governor of Indiana.
The result blindsided pundits, pollsters, and, most of all, the political establishment in Washington. Even the betting markets got this one way wrong.

Statistician Nate Silver, who runs the popular polling website FiveThirtyEight.com (a reference to the total number of Electoral College votes), gave Clinton a more than 70% chance of winning. The New York Times gave her a more than 80% chance of winning. And the left-wing news website the Huffington Post gave her an almost 100% chance.

And it wasn’t just the pollsters that got it wrong. Most of the folks betting on the race got it wrong, too. PredictWise, a popular prediction market website that converts gambling odds into probabilities, gave Clinton an 89% chance of being the 45th president of the United States.

One expert who called this right is our chief Australia strategist Kris Sayce, who’s been watching the race closely from our office in Melbourne.

Here’s what Kris told his readers last Friday about what to look out for…

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