By Simone Wapler – The Strategy of Simone Wapler (France) –
What is important, in the days to come, it is, without hesitation, the result of the Italian referendum.
You will find here a good summary of the situation, signed by my colleague Mory Doré.
A “yes” differs banking crisis, financial and monetary – but we have it all the same.
A “no” precipitated. The rescue of Italian banks will be painful for all European taxpayers.
The sinking of these banks too. If the Italian depositors are first in line to absorb the impact, behind there is the credibility of the euro – and all the countries of the eurozone are concerned.
So it is important to see how the situation evolves to fit the best. The euro has been gaining more skepticism and rejection. Rejection by those who feel victims of austerity.
Skepticism from those who do not want to pay for others. These “others” not wanting to change their lifestyle. Reading Anglo-Saxon press, I am very surprised to read there a very different interpretation from that of the French press.
Thus, François Fillon is presented as a “center right” rather pro-free market and conservative in terms of morals. Obviously, no analogy is made between François Fillon and Margaret Thatcher.
For The Wall Street Journal , the French presidential final oppose the National Front (extreme right) to right center. The National Front is presented as the party that wants to get France out of the euro. Obviously, politicians do not speak the same language abroad on French soil, which explains some differences in what the media reported. But the Anglo-Saxon vision is important.
Like it or not, is that the fund manager of the pension Mrs. Smith or Mrs. Chang Frau Braun … If the National Front rise in the polls, expect that the yields of French debt rise despite Draghi’s efforts. Buyers of French debt in euro will dread the National Front – unless the latter completely changing economic program.
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