Five Lessons You Can Draw from India’s War on Cash

28.12.2016 • Emerging Markets

Ankit Shah – Vivek Kaul’s Inner Circle (IND)

Do you worry more when the stock markets are rising or falling?

The average investor worries about falling stock prices. And it may seem stupid to do otherwise.

But believe it or not, a true value investor worries when markets scale new peaks…especially when the underlying fundamentals don’t agree.

Our global expert from Australia, Vern Gowdie, is worried about the US stock markets.

According to him, an ‘overvalued, overbought and over-bullish’ warning sign has been triggered in the US market.

And he has solid historical data to support his warning. Here’s Vern:We are setting up for a replay of 2008/09, but on a much grander scale…something more akin to the 1930s.

When is the best time to sell? When everyone wants to buy.

Remember, markets look the safest when they are at their most dangerous.

But before I take you through Vern’s warning signal, I want you understand how the earnings and stock prices of various businesses and sectors are linked to the larger economic cycles.

In our view, it is best to stick to the bottom-up style of stock-picking, but some awareness of the business cycles can be quite helpful for long-term investors.

We’ll also take a look a look at how the BSE-Sensex has performed over the last three years. In a concise, insightful piece, Rahul Shah (Research Analyst) explains the very basis of successful investing. It’s very simple and effective, yet most investors have difficulty following it.

Because of impatience.Towards the latter part of this issue, we’re going to focus on the war against cash.

In our 14 November 2016 Inner Circle issue, I showed you how Modi’s surgical strike against the cash economy is part of a worldwide megatrend.

Governments and central bankers across the globe are working on a war footing to uproot physical cash from the financial system.

But is it in India’s best interest to push for a cashless society?

Subscribe here to read more.

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