Kris Sayce – Port Phillip Insider – (Australia) –
This was the picture on the front page of the Australian Financial Review after the dip in Australia’s quarterly GDP figures came out.
This was before Christmas. I brought this same picture to the attention of Money Morning Trader readers at the time. This was on 7 December last year.
Perhaps you saw this at the time. Did you worry? Did you sell stocks, or think about it?
A front page like that looks a cause for concern at least, doesn’t it? This is why investing and trading can really mess with your mind.
In fact, at the time this came out, the Aussie market was already moving into a Christmas rally that’s still running today. The market is always looking beyond the immediate news.
Take a look…
The market has barely had a day down since. From the low on 5 December, the market is now up 400 points at the time of writing. It’s up 20% since Feb 2016 — and therefore ‘officially’ a bull market now. The market looks to be pricing in a bullish 2017.
And why not? Major indices worldwide are at all-time highs. Real estate markets are rising globally, too. And it’s worth noting that Australia’s mineral and energy exports are on track to hit a record high in fiscal 2017.
Most analysts take the ‘safe’ view
Now you might be tempted to take the ‘contrarian’ position here and assume things are on the brink of reversing. But actually, most analysts I see in the mainstream are predicting the share market will run out of steam in 2017.
That’s the ‘safe’ view, in the sense of not shocking anyone or being seen to be out of the herd.
Hopefully, as a Port Phillip Publishing reader, you know never to trust the mainstream view.
You simply won’t make money doing that.