Meanwhile, Donald Trump has almost become a stranger to the fight for a more economically stronger US. For a long time it looked as if he would only pronounce what many think. It is now clear that he is probably also badly advised. For he is beating himself. The only goal is to weaken the dollar, the euro accordingly stronger.
Now he has formulated an argument that is particularly hard on us in Germany. We are the (former) D-Mark strong, who now also use the euro to sell our goods. This is what his assertion is. In his opinion, all other currencies are manipulated in such a way that they are particularly weak and help countries to flood the world with goods.
The D-Mark war is running
In the eyes of many European competitors, the German mark has also been responsible for Germany becoming so strong. The German mark was too weak for them, with which German exports were supposed to have been too cheap, the other too strong. We could buy too much.
German economic policy has weaknesses. European economic policy has many more weaknesses. But to make us responsible for the misery of this world, and especially the American, is going a long way. Behind it lies another calculus. Trump seems to have a lot to do to push the Eurozone into chaos even faster than the countries alone.
Trump has already succeeded in largely isolating Great Britain from the euro zone. On Thursday, the British want to present in detail how they imagine Brexit. A first vote was held last night at 8pm. The hard brexit without compromise, ie the accession to the European trade organization EFTA, is more likely.
Conflict: Ex-US Treasury Secretary intervenes
The split is progressing faster than many have believed. The euro zone is now receiving an unexpected return from the US. The former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has switched on and calls on the European companies to work together. It was a “moraltest for the economy”.
Meanwhile, however, more and more of the European companies are turning to the US and are looking for investment opportunities. Trump has credibly threatened that the gates for the US market are otherwise closed. The tariffs are aimed at all products manufactured outside the USA.
The first episodes are quickly visible. The trump policy of the weak dollar has already led to a small economic boom. In January alone, 250,000 new jobs were created in the USA. This was the highest increase in half a year. If the first trend continues, Trump could prevail.
That his angry speech against the Deutsche Mark and all other currency manipulations, which do not exist, go to nothing, then no one cares. They must therefore expect the US Federal Reserve to interfere with Fed and not to call Trump with his false allegations. Rather, in the US the policy of cheap money will go a little further than hitherto suspected.
This is the real big surprise from the US: the dollar becomes the economic leverage, the wall against Mexico, the advertising around Russia or the travel bans against Muslims are only a distraction maneuver.
We are faced with a currency crisis, which Trump begins more decisively than the Europeans. This is why the US remains important to investors. More important than ever.
Trump has strengthened its pressure on the US dollar with its currency anger and the losses against Germany and the D-Mark. US companies and their shares should benefit from this.
Julien Backhaus is a German publisher, media entrepreneur and financial expert. He founded the Backhaus Verlag in 2011, where the magazines Sachwertmagazin and Erfolgsmagazin are published. He is the managing director and his holding company of the on-line TV channel Wirtschafts TV. In 2012, Backhaus was elected as Chairman of the Board at the German Property and Financial Association in Berlin.
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