By Kris Sayce – Port Phillip Insider (Australia) –
Increased warning signs.
Since late last year, we’ve warned about the possible onset of an Australian recession.
The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of contracting economic growth. Or, as the mainstream likes to ridiculously put it, ‘negative growth’.
Well, Australia has had one quarter of ‘negative growth’. We’re surprised the mainstream, with their hapless wordplay, doesn’t label it ‘one consecutive quarter’.
The issue now is whether a second quarter of contraction will follow the first.
If it does, a recession is the result — the first for Australia in 26 years.
So, could it happen? By our estimates, yes. It’s why we’ve highlighted what we like to call the ‘Big Australian Short’.
And the headlines don’t do anything to sway us otherwise.