By Kris Sayce – Port Phillip Insider (Australia) –
We’re closing in on R-Day. That is ‘Recession Day’.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics is due to release the latest gross domestic product (GDP) numbers at 11:30am on Wednesday, 1 March.
According to the latest survey by Bloomberg, economists predict quarterly GDP to be 0.7% for the fourth quarter of 2016.
If they’re right (And why wouldn’t they be right? They’re smart economists!) it will be a stunning turnaround. The third quarter GDP was -0.5%. That was worse than the forecast -0.1%.
Perhaps what makes things worse is that, historically, the surveyed economists have an awful track record. You’d think that over the past 15 years, they’d get it right every now and then.
But looking at the chart below, we can only find three occasions when the consensus of surveyed economists has gotten it right. Three. Three out of 60 isn’t a very good strike rate.