By Kris Sayce – Port Phillip Insider (Australia) –
Here’s a story which sends a shudder of complacency down our spine. From Business Insider Australia:
‘Australia is likely to avoid a technical recession — defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth — when the ABS releases its December quarter GDP report next Wednesday, March 1.
‘All 25 economists polled by Bloomberg expect a positive growth quarter, forecasting a rebound following the shock 0.5% contraction — the largest since the GFC — in the September quarter.
‘The median estimate is centred around an increase in real GDP of 0.7% for the quarter, leaving the year-on-year growth rate at 1.9%.’
Who knows, maybe the consensus view of the mainstream economists is right. The Aussie economy may rebound. The streak of recession-less growth could continue.
But, perhaps, for no other reason than being stubbornly contrarian, we continue to believe that this week will witness the end of that recession-less run.
On the off chance we’re right, here’s how to play it.