Australia’s Non-Recession and What it Means to Be Contrarian

01.03.2017 • Investing

By Kris Sayce – Port Phillip Insider (Australia) –

For the past five weeks, we’ve relentlessly (and by relentlessly, we mean every…single…day) warned you about the prospect of Australia falling into a recession.

Today was the crucial day. We dubbed it, ‘R-Day’, for ‘Recession Day’. Geddit? Clever, huh!

Today, Bloomberg reported this:

‘Australia’s economy expanded faster than forecast in the fourth quarter of 2016 as household savings fell to the lowest level in more than eight years as consumers opened their wallets. Gross domestic product rose 1.1% from [the] prior quarter; economists estimated [a] 0.8% gain.’

Economists predicted a 0.8% gain.

We predicted that the economists’ predictions would be overly optimistic.

Turns out the economists’ predictions were overly pessimistic.

Egg on face? Yes. Sunny side up, to boot.

We freely admit that when you have a contrarian mindset, you will be wrong. Not just ‘on occasion’ either. As a contrarian, it’s entirely possible that you can be wrong more often than you’re right.

For instance, if you have predicted a stock market collapse ever since the first sign of a recovery in 2009, you have been wrong every time you’ve made that prediction — so far.

Does that make you a bad person? Does it make you a loser or a failure…or even incompetent?

No. It merely means that the events that you thought would transpire in a certain way, didn’t transpire that way. Providing you have exercised a good, honest, and rational thought process to come to your conclusions, even if you turn out to be wrong you shouldn’t feel ashamed.

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