By Charlie Morris – The Fleet Street Letter (Great Britain) –
So far, the uncertainty surrounding Brexit hasn’t even registered on the charts.
You could look back in ten years’ time and study the FTSE.
The Brexit vote will be etched in history, but Article 50 will vanish without trace.
The markets aren’t stupid and you should respect the message they are sending.
I have concluded that the risks are political rather than economic.
As if they were economic, volatility wouldn’t be so low.
The politics could easily flare up, and probably will, but they won’t impact economic prosperity.
Not in the slightest. There will be a victory for common sense.
The negotiations will take place with the elected Council of Ministers (Tusk, etc) in charge. The unelected Commission (Juncker, etc) will behave like Sir Humphrey, as they usually do, but the buck stops with the Council.
Inevitably, they’ll be low points, which will fuel a media storm, but the financial markets are telling you that the outcome will be amicable settlement.