Simone Wapler – La Chronique Agora (France) –
Janet Yellen does not think of another crisis. It’s a suicidal sentence … for its credibility. The dark tongue of Draghi wood is more suitable.
The IMF lowers its growth forecast for the US but the Fed is continuing its cycle of monetary tightening.
“I do not think we will see another crisis in our lifetime “
The dollar is falling. He does not really seem to believe this brave Janet who is only 70 years old.
Mario Draghi, for his part, said that at the last meeting of the ECB committee, the withdrawal of exceptional measures had not even been discussed. Any change would be very gradual “to ensure that our stimulus accompanies the recovery despite the remaining doubts”.
Rest assured, it is normal and voluntary. Formal counterfeiters avoid speaking clearly.Does the sentence seem absurd to you, dear reader? Here it is in English for the skeptics: “To make sure that you will be able to take care of yourself. “. It’s not clearer, is it?
according to The Wall Street Journal, Euro-denominated counterfeit currency issues currently amounting to € 60 billion per month could be reduced to € 40 billion per month in the first half of 2018 and € 20 billion per month in the second half of the year.
This will make much less money to buy back the debts of bankrupt friends (we think of the Venetian banks)!
Under these conditions, could the bond market bubble finally crack?
When talking about bubble, a good little graph is always useful. Here is one concocted by Thomson Financials which compares the price ratios on earnings of stocks and bonds. In the case of bonds, of course, they are returns. In other words: how many years of detention do you need to amortize your purchase in both cases, stocks and bonds.
There is no need for a doctorate in economics to know how to recognize the curve of a bubble.
The bright orange curve of the bonds screams “mega-bubble on the horizon, take out the lifeboats, put on your vests” …
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Especially as rising rates on funds of economic slowdown in the United States and tightening monetary bank funds in Europe represent two gigantic pins threatening these two bubbles.
I wish a long, serene and peaceful life to Janet Yellen.
But when the bubble explodes, on either side of the Atlantic, it is likely that this unfortunate phrase, “no other crisis in our lifetime”, darkens his retreat.
Fortunately, ridicule does not kill … The central bankers would not survive.