Author archives: Nick Hubble

  • Beware the Myth That Guides US Investments

    23.04.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on Beware the Myth That Guides US Investments

    The Austrians point to what happened in 1920-21 as the appropriate response to the 2008 crisis, instead of the government bailouts and Fed money printing that we actually got. But this analogy is false. Do not be seduced by it. Or feel free to be, but do not

  • Goldman Sachs CEO: The Return Has Begun

    20.04.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on Goldman Sachs CEO: The Return Has Begun

    Investment banks like Goldman Sachs make good money on trading volatility. The problem is, the central banks have quashed just that volatility. Blankfein is both complaining about this and celebrating the return of volatility in February.

  • All Hell Breaks Loose in the Aussie Mortgage Market

    18.04.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on All Hell Breaks Loose in the Aussie Mortgage Market

    At first, it appears to be a small problem in an obscure part of the Australian mortgage market. The only problem is, it’s not small. And Australia’s banks have the potential to trigger a global contagion thanks to their reliance on overseas funding.

  • Neo-McCarthyism Sweeps the Western World

    18.04.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on Neo-McCarthyism Sweeps the Western World

    A bad case of Russian hysteria is breaking out across the Western world again. It’s all too familiar for anyone with an interest in history. But there are some modern twists. Imagine this headline at the height of McCarthyism: “Facebook and Reddit have

  • Economic Slowdown Reignites Global QE

    16.04.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on Economic Slowdown Reignites Global QE

    Either way, it’s clear that QE is messing with a yield curve that grows closer to signalling a US recession by the month. You’d think they’d manipulate it to signal otherwise. Earnings season in the US began last week, so we’ll be looking for more

  • Policy Profiteering: Your Best Investment Strategy of 2018

    11.04.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on Policy Profiteering: Your Best Investment Strategy of 2018

    The basic premise of this investment style is that the unintended consequences of government policy are predictable, and therefore tradeable. Now, government policy fails in all sorts of creative ways. Sometimes it just doesn’t work and has to be abandoned.

  • Trade War Alliances Form as the Conflict Goes Global

    09.04.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on Trade War Alliances Form as the Conflict Goes Global

    Japan requested to be part of the US’ World Trade Organisation case against China on unfair intellectual property practices. Britain is siding up to Trump in the hope of helping a trade deal along too. And the EU is trying to avoid getting caught up.

  • The Federal Reserve: the Beast at the Top of the Food Chain

    06.04.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on The Federal Reserve: the Beast at the Top of the Food Chain

    I share a snippet from the latest issue of London Investment Alert, in which Tim Price speaks on the birth of the predator known as the Federal Reserve System, that flies miles high in the sky, unaccountable and independent, before striking down to cause

  • Bears & Bulls: You Now Share the Same Strategy

    05.04.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on Bears & Bulls: You Now Share the Same Strategy

    Despite arguing against every potential crash trigger I can find, buying fragile stocks seems like a bad idea. Just because central banks can prevent a crash, doesn’t mean there won’t be some sort of bear market. So stay out of financials and heavily

  • Trump & Powell: Your Wealth’s Puppet Masters

    04.04.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on Trump & Powell: Your Wealth’s Puppet Masters

    Between them, central bankers and politicians are dominating the long and short-term market moves. While quantitative easing was running hot, it pushed up markets. Since it fell on a net basis across all the central banks, markets went into a correction.

  • The Chinese Fire Shots at the Dollar

    04.04.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on The Chinese Fire Shots at the Dollar

    The Chinese have announced their plans to pay for oil in yuan. No US dollars needed. The pilot plan might launch as early as this year. The financial markets needed to make this work are up and running as of last week. Oil futures are already trading in yuan.

  • FTSE Falls Back to 2000 Levels

    03.04.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on FTSE Falls Back to 2000 Levels

    Meanwhile, gold is up five-fold over the same time in pounds and four-fold in dollars. Silver is not far behind. Diamond prices have doubled. Wine and stamps surged according to a report by Citibank. Art did ok too. In other words, useless inanimate objects

  • Painting Data-Miners With Pantone 448C.

    30.03.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on Painting Data-Miners With Pantone 448C.

    The Economist claimed not so long ago that data is the new oil. There are certainly fair comparisons to be made: data has become (to an extent) commoditised, and those with access to the sources have grown into huge companies, surpassing even the oil giants.

  • The American Market De-FAANGed

    29.03.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on The American Market De-FAANGed

    American markets were down again overnight. But only marginally so. The few stocks that led the market up are now taking it back down again. A series of scandals are behind their drops. But how can a select few companies move the market so much?

  • What We Could Learn from the Land of Bear Markets.

    28.03.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on What We Could Learn from the Land of Bear Markets.

    Pipe up about stocks in Japan and you’re considered a gambler. No wonder property investing is dumb and stocks are gambling. Long-term gains are non-existent. So much for stocks go up in the long run – the premise of investing in the West.

  • If Trump Negotiated Brexit

    27.03.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on If Trump Negotiated Brexit

    If you want someone to move in a particular direction, the easiest way to do it is to push them in the opposite direction. If you do it in an irritating way, they’re guaranteed to step in the direction you wanted them to. This is also the basis of all

  • What Is Preventing the Coming Crash?

    26.03.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on What Is Preventing the Coming Crash?

    But why are markets crashing? Is it trade wars? Brexit? Perhaps stocks just got too expensive and they’re due for a correction. Only one of those factors really matters in the end. And not because it could cause a stockmarket crash. But because it’s the

  • The Business Cycle Is Dying

    23.03.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on The Business Cycle Is Dying

    The trouble with countercyclicality is that it’s disappearing. And not just in the eurozone. I call it the synchronization of business cycles.Recessions and monetary policy are steadily synchronizing around the world. Trade flows aren’t reversing over

  • The Root of the Crisis Cycle Uncovered

    21.03.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on The Root of the Crisis Cycle Uncovered

    That problem of misaligned incentives applies to our entire understanding of the financial system too. Without an understanding of what happened, our interpretation is likely to be wrong. And that means our response is too. And that’s how crises keep

  • Brexit Negotiations Getting Murky

    20.03.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on Brexit Negotiations Getting Murky

    Britain has agreed on a transition deal with the EU. But the EU’s negotiator reminded us that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”. So have we agreed on a transition deal or not?

  • Will Cryptos Survive the Government Crackdown?

    19.03.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on Will Cryptos Survive the Government Crackdown?

    Facebook, Google and potentially Twitter will ban cryptocurrency advertising on their platforms. That includes advertising of related products. Banks around the world are refusing to deal with major crypto exchanges. Sometimes when those exchanges are in

  • The Dark Shadow of Recession Approaches

    16.03.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on The Dark Shadow of Recession Approaches

    It seems a recession will be extremely difficult to fight off if it strikes now. Not that one can or should fight off a recession, but that’s what governments and economists believe they should do. So they’ll try. But is there really such a risk? The

  • Shifts in EU Policy Push Non-Believers Towards Brexit

    14.03.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on Shifts in EU Policy Push Non-Believers Towards Brexit

    Take for example the requirement to be part of EU policy until Brexit. European leaders have come up with all sorts of hare-brained schemes lately. It’s as if they’re testing the British commitment to comply with wacky EU law until we leave.

  • Prepare for Unintended Consequences

    13.03.2018 • United KingdomComments Off on Prepare for Unintended Consequences

    Always remember, monetary policy works largely by encouraging leverage. Hence the steady debt boom over time around the world. Without a clear-out of the leverage through a recession, the firms that would’ve died become zombies instead. They’re