Emerging Markets
Category Archive

Expect A Tornado of Hot Air Around Indian Interest Rates

24.03.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on Expect A Tornado of Hot Air Around Indian Interest Rates

By Vivek Kaul – The Vivek Kaul Letter (India) – The next meeting of the monetary policy committee of the Reserve Bank of India(RBI) is scheduled on April 5 and 6, 2017. As John Lanchester writes in How to Speak Money: “Monetary means to do with interest-rates, and is controlled by the central bank.” Around …

Read More

Real Estate Market Brightens in Buenos Aires

23.03.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on Real Estate Market Brightens in Buenos Aires

Last year I predicted that the real estate market would pick up. Today, just a little over a year after the lifting currency controls – “el cepo” –my predictions came true. Dear Reader, Last Thursday I attended the most important economic event of

Why Would You Go to Nicaragua?

23.03.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on Why Would You Go to Nicaragua?

That's the same question we had when one of our roving reporters discovered an opportunity there 20 years ago. “You should,” was his reply. “It has some of the best beachfront property in the world. And they’re practically giving it away.” We

A Philosophy For Business and Life

22.03.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on A Philosophy For Business and Life

By Felipe Miranda – Daily Pro (Brazil) – Some questions are very hard to answer. Take a look at one of the questions I got earlier this week: “Are you writing about life as it applies to finances, or about finances with implications for how

Can India Afford to Forgive Small Loans to Farmers?

22.03.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on Can India Afford to Forgive Small Loans to Farmers?

Can the government in Delhi afford it? Rs 27,420 crore is not a large amount. But if it goes ahead and finances this write off, similar demands will be raised by other states as well. Once the farmer sees a loan being waived off today, he will wait for

India Predicts Money Supply Will Return to Normal By May

21.03.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on India Predicts Money Supply Will Return to Normal By May

The new Reserve Bank of India deputy governor claims that by May 2017, the currency in circulation will come to a level around what prevailed before demonetization rendered Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes useless. This is a prediction we've been ridiculed for

Profitable Indian Supermarket Chain Goes Public Tomorrow

20.03.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on Profitable Indian Supermarket Chain Goes Public Tomorrow

By Ankit Shah – Vivek Kaul’s Inner Circle (India) – This happened a month ago when I was in Pondicherry (a former French colony) with my wife. My wife needed a new swimsuit. So, we went to one of the main market areas in the city and checked

Argentina On The Rise: What You Need to Know

16.03.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on Argentina On The Rise: What You Need to Know

By Federico Tessore – Pasaporte Inversor (Argentina) – Schools don’t open on time. Traffic in Downtown Buenos Aires is a mess every day. You can see the signs of poverty all over the city and it’s getting worse every day. The main workers’

Has India’s War on Cash Produced Results?

16.03.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on Has India’s War on Cash Produced Results?

One of the aims of demonetization was to ensure that a greater part of the economy becomes digital - i.e. people use digital modes of payments while carrying out economic transactions, instead of using cash. The initial evidence on this front is not very

5 Brazilian Stocks You Need to Know in 2017

14.03.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on 5 Brazilian Stocks You Need to Know in 2017

By Felipe Miranda – Word of the Strategist (Brazil) – “You must love to lose money, and hate to make money. You must love to lose money, and hate to make money.” This is a report dedicated to those of you that are up for losing a bit of money.

Have We Hit Peak Globalization?

14.03.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on Have We Hit Peak Globalization?

By Ankit Shah – Vivek Kaul’s Inner Circle (India) – At the start of 2016, I wrote a special note about Global Offshore Services Ltd (GOSL) – a company in the offshore shipping market that provides offshore support vessels for oil and

India Has Always Gone For Gold

10.03.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on India Has Always Gone For Gold

By Vivek Kaul – The Vivek Kaul Letter (India) – I attended a friend’s wedding reception recently. Word got around regarding what I do for a living and then suddenly people were interested. After some talk about the Indian economy and where it is

Three Questions You Should Be Asking About Argentina

09.03.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on Three Questions You Should Be Asking About Argentina

By Federico Tessore – Investor Passport (Argentina) – Investors are asking themselves three questions right now, whose answers are going to define the decisions they are going to have to make this year. Let’s start with the first one… What’s

Destabilizing a Cash Economy is Harder Than Imagined

08.03.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on Destabilizing a Cash Economy is Harder Than Imagined

One of the so-called aims of demonetisation is to reduce the total amount of cash in the financial system. As of now, the financial system continues to have a lesser amount of cash than it had before demonetisation.Take a look at Figure 1. It plots the

Did India Fudge It’s GDP Numbers?

07.03.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on Did India Fudge It’s GDP Numbers?

Probably not, but during the course of last week, the chief statistician of India, TCA Anant, gave several interviews to explain the deficiencies in the way the Indian GDP is measured--deficiencies that I feel have led to the GDP being over-reported.

India Has 7 Taxpayers For Every 100 Voters

03.03.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on India Has 7 Taxpayers For Every 100 Voters

By Vivek Kaul – The Vivek Kaul Letter (India) – This is a piece I have been wanting to write for a while, but other ideas kept taking over and this had to take a backseat. In the budget speech the finance minister Arun Jaitley made on February 1,

In Defense of Cash

02.03.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on In Defense of Cash

Jaitley claims that demonetization is formalizing the “informal economy”. It’s not that straightforward. As Dr. Jim believes, there’s no proof that the “informal economy” is any less beneficial than the “formal” one.

Questions About India’s Post-Demonetization “GDP Growth”

01.03.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on Questions About India’s Post-Demonetization “GDP Growth”

According to the government, the GDP grew by 7 per cent from Oct to Dec 2016, in comparison to the same period in 2015. Given that private consumption expenditure forms a bulk of the GDP, this tells us that there is something that just doesn't smell right.

What Argentina Can Teach You About the US Dollar

28.02.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on What Argentina Can Teach You About the US Dollar

By Ivan Carrino – El Diario Del Lunes (Argentina) – Dear Reader, These days, the financial news is having a hard time explaining what is happening with the dollar. For years, maybe decades, the U.S. dollar has been “an Argentine obsession.”

A Broken Window into Indian Demonetization

28.02.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on A Broken Window into Indian Demonetization

French economist Bastiat once described the costs of a broken window as "that which can be seen." The problem in post demonetization India is with the unseen part, India's huge informal economy. With not enough cash going around, transactions for buying and

Mexico Turns From U.S. To Argentina For Corn

27.02.2017 • Emerging MarketsComments Off on Mexico Turns From U.S. To Argentina For Corn

By Selva Freigedo – Port Phillip Insider (Australia) – Latin America is key to the US economy. Mexico and Brazil are the largest Latin American trading partners, receiving 18% of the total US exports. To give you an idea, the US exports three

Demonetization Delivers a Blow to Indian Real Estate

24.02.2017 • Emerging Markets

By Vivek Kaul – The Vivek Kaul Letter (India) – In the Economic Survey of 2016-2017, there was a very interesting chart on real estate. I have reproduced that as Figure 1. What does Figure 1 tell us? It tells us that real estate launches and sales

Five Tips on How You Can Save More Money

24.02.2017 • Emerging Markets

By Federico Tessore – Investor Passport (Argentina) – How often have we heard the saying: “Savings are the foundation of wealth?” Sometimes the most trite cliches are actually true. It’s quite simple: saving means spending less than what we

How Footwear Could Solve India’s Labor Woes

22.02.2017 • Emerging Markets

India needs a large burst of economic activity in labor intensive sectors to employ the approximately one million largely low-skill, semi-skilled and unskilled individuals entering the workforce every month. Apparel and footwear jobs could be the answer.